Development Uses for Scenarios
Knowing the precise actions of the future is simply impossible. To predict the best outcome, multiple scenarios can be created that each construes a different story about the future. In large scale scenarios, each one models a different kind of distinct world in which future generations have to live and work. The direct purpose of planning scenarios is not to exactly pinpoint the future events that may occur, but will instead discover large scale forces that could push the future in a certain direction. Making these forces visible is the intention of scenarios, so that they can be recognized and prepared for when they happen (if that decision is made).
Scenarios are all about helping to make better decisions for today. The planning stage begins with identifying focal issues or decisions. Hundreds of stories for the scenarios could be used, but beginning the process by choosing the stories that matter for the future is the best choice. The question could be broad, about the future, or specific, about introducing a particular subject. Issues will be used as a test of relevance during the process of creating scenarios.
The dynamics that shape the future can be identified and understood by the use of scenarios. Social dynamics, such as demographic issues, could be identified, as well as economic issues (trends and forces that shape the economy), political issues (electoral), and technological issues (usually direct). Most real issues combine many of these. Scenarios are not without uncertainties, however. These uncertainties can be used as a key for the focal issue of the scenario.
Main uses for scenarios compass a wide range of decision making. Identifying all the implications that work in all scenarios will create the knowledge that you’re making the best, most reliable plans. With scenarios, the business leader will know what to expect from their choice in the future, and be able to identify the indicators of future unfolding of the scenario. The power of scenarios and their planning for development is a preparation that can create a stability for the unlooked for futures, and to understand as well as identify the future.
